MMA Mathematics: Tyron Woodley vs. Darren Till


Well, UFC 228 is tomorrow and we have the top of the welterweight division throwing down for the title. Darren Till is already known for his knockout power at the young age of 25. He challenges the current champ, Tyron Woodley. Woodley is adamant about knocking Till out. Let’s break down the numbers.

According to the UFC’s numbers, Woodley averages around 2.48 strikes per minute and has an accuracy of 47.29%. At 210 total minutes inside the octagon and assuming that Woodley’s output was the same before his UFC debut, Woodley has thrown a total of 521 strikes, landing around 246 of them. At 210 minutes of octagon time, the champ throws around 10 strikes per round with 4.7 strikes connecting.

In Tyron Woodley’s 22 professional fights, he has six knockouts, all in the first round. In the first round, Woodley’s punches have a 1.1% chance to knock out Till in the first round. Statistically speaking, Till needs not to worry about being knocked out by Woodley after the first round. 

How does that compare? Let’s take a look at his opponent, Darren Till, and the man he took the belt from, Robbie Lawler.

Darren Till By the Numbers

Again, pulling from the UFC’s statistics, Darren Till throws 2.67 strikes per minute at a 46.35% accuracy rate. Till had spent roughly 188 minutes in the octagon, putting him around 502 total strikes thrown. That has him connecting on about 233 of them. Till sits at around 12 strikes per round, landing 5.5.

Here’s where Darren Till has the advantage. Where Woodley has six first round knockouts and none after the first, Till shows his power later in the game. Till has ten knockouts under his belt already. Where he differs is he has four first round knockouts. Till knocks out his opponents later in the fight as opposed to early on. He has three knockouts in round two, two KOs in the third, and a fourth round knock out as well. Till’s 5% knockout per punch chances break down to the following:

  • Round 1: 2.0% chance of knockout
  • Round 2: 1.5% chance of knockout
  • Round 3: 1.0% chance of knockout
  • Round 4: 1.0% chance of knockout
  • Round 5: 0.0% chance of knockout

Darren clearly holds the advantage in the art of the knockout throughout the whole fight at UFC 228, with the exception of round five. 

Looking at the Legends

With Till being almost five times more likely to knock out Woodley than vice versa, how does he stack up to a legend like the previous champ, Robbie Lawler? Robbie is known for his wars and knockout power. Let’s run these numbers on Lawler.

Lawler dwarfs both Till and Woodley in output. At 3.86 strikes per minute, this puts Lawler on top of the three by far. But, with all that output, Lawler’s accuracy comes in the lowest at 44.85%.

The veteran has 41 total fights on his resume with 420 minutes in the cage and 100 rounds. At 15 strikes per round, Lawler connects with 6.7 of his strikes per round. Lawler’s knockout per strike runs at 1.3%. 

Lawler has some highlights too. 20 career knockouts makes him one of the most dangerous welterweights of all time. Breaking down his knockouts, Lawler has accumulated 11 first round knockouts, four in the second, three in the third, and one a piece in rounds four and five. 

Here’s where you really start to see the work Lawler has done. He’s thrown an astounding 1,495 punches in his career, connecting on 670 of them. 

Robbie Lawler’s output makes his numbers look way worse than he actually is. His sheer amount of output makes him dangerous any time in a fight. Here’s his breakdown:

  • Round 1: 0.72% chance of knockout
  • Round 2: 0.11% chance of knockout
  • Round 3: 0.08% chance of knockout
  • Round 4 & 5: 0.03% chance of knockout

Again, Robbie puts out so many strikes a round in comparison to Till and Woodley, his numbers are much lower, but his volume makes up for it. 

UFC 228 Predictions

If the fight between Woodley and Till leaves the first round and Woodley goes for the knockout, as he’s stated before, Till has the big advantage in rounds two three and four, while the fifth and a decision aren’t a factor in the knockout numbers. Till also has the advantage in the first round, but Woodley is still dangerous. 

Keep in mind, these numbers didn’t take into account take downs and submissions either, which Woodley is great at. 

Either way the fight goes, we’re sure to have a slobber knocker come this Saturday. Who do you think will win the bout at UFC 228?

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Blaine Henry

Just your friendly neighborhood fight fan!

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